According to members of the Three Continent AMD Consortium (3CC), prediction models for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) based on case-control studies have a tendency to overestimate risks.
To provide more well-defined data, 3CC developed a prediction model for late AMD based on data from population-based studies. Using data from the Rotterdam Study, the Beaver Dam Eye Study, and the Blue Mountains Eye Study, the researchers concluded that “estimated risks were lower in these population-based studies than in previous case-control studies”.
The predictors of development of late AMD were based on age, sex, 26 single nucleotide polymorphisms, smoking, body mass index, and early AMD phenotype. After 11.1 months, 363 subjects developed late AMD and 3,378 subjects developed early AMD, while 6,365 subjects did not develop any form of AMD.
The authors noted that the apparent risk of developing AMD may encourage individuals to modify their lifestyle to prevent late AMD.
Source: “Prediction of Age-related Macular Degeneration in the General Population: The Three Continent AMD Consortium” by Gabrielle, H.S. et al (published online 11 October 2013 in Ophthalmology, Manuscript #2013-588.)